我国喀斯特断陷盆地石漠化区植物群落构建机制研究

喀斯特断陷盆地是我国石漠化综合治理8大喀斯特类型中治理成效最低、治理难度最大的区域，面临石漠化严重、干旱频发、植被恢复难等突出问题。文中针对水分是影响喀斯特断陷盆地石漠化治理与植被恢复成效最关键的限制因素，综合分析了国内外水分梯度差异与植物群落构建机制研究动态与发展趋势；提出利用日趋成熟的水分脆弱性评价方法，通过建立基于耦合暴露度、敏感性及适应性的水资源脆弱性评价指标体系，以满足遥感影像分辨率和植物群落调查样地大小的评价单元进行水分脆弱性评估；在建立物种库—功能性状—生境特征数据库的基础上，提出基于功能性状差异进行喀斯特断陷盆地植物群落机制构建的研究方案。提出的研究方案有望解决喀斯特断陷盆地石漠化区水分梯度特征与分布格局、自然植物群落组配规律及其生境特征、水分梯度与生境要素对植物群落特征及功能性状组成的影响规律等关键科学问题，可为不同脆弱生态区植被恢复群落构建机制研究提供重要参考和借鉴。     

基于扩散理论的华北春玉米生理成熟后籽粒脱水过程分析

玉米机收籽粒可以显著提高玉米的生产效率,是玉米生产的发展方向。生理成熟后的籽粒含水率是决定机收质量的关键,受品种、密度和气候等多种因素影响。准确估算生理成熟后玉米籽粒含水率,进而分析其主要影响因素,最终确定玉米收获时间和筛选适宜机收的品种,对玉米主产区华北的春玉米籽粒机收发展具有重要意义。因此,于2017年和2018年在河北省泊头、南大港、玉田和山西榆次进行了两年田间春玉米试验,每年设置7个共性品种,每个品种3个密度,对生理成熟后籽粒含水率、品种性状、气象和管理要素进行了监测,并利用基于扩散理论考虑空气温湿度的脱水模型对籽粒含水率进行了模拟,进而计算脱水曲线下的面积(AUDDC),用以筛选脱水优异的玉米品种。结果表明,基于扩散理论的籽粒脱水模型对玉米生理成熟后籽粒含水率的模拟效果较好;年份、地点和品种对生理成熟时籽粒含水率(M_0)和水分扩散速率(k)具有显著影响,密度对脱水参数影响不显著。逐步线性回归分析得到灌浆期参考作物蒸发蒸腾量(ET_0)、最高气温和灌水量对M_0具有显著的正效应,生理成熟后30 d内ET0和灌浆中后期降雨对k具有显著的正效应,全生育期降雨对k具有显著的负效应。品种性状中对M_0影响最大的为苞叶层数(正效应),对k影响最大的为叶片数(负效应)。通过模型计算得到,生理成熟后10d华北地区春玉米籽粒含水率可以下降到28%,籽粒含水率下降到25%的概率为50%。由模型计算得到各品种生理成熟后10 d内的AUDDC,与AUDDC平均值比较发现‘京农科728’‘张1453’‘华农887’‘广德5’和‘金科玉3306’为脱水表现优异的品种。     

基于DEB理论的皱纹盘鲍个体生长模型参数的测定

为获取皱纹盘鲍(Haliotis discus hannai)个体生长模型所需的6个关键参数，设计了饥饿耗能、温度对耗氧的影响等相关生理实验，计算得到各项参数值。单位体积维持耗能率的值 、形成单位体积结构物质所需的能量值 、单位体积最大储存能量 和储备能量值 4个参数，通过连续测定皱纹盘鲍饥饿过程中呼吸耗氧率和软组织干重不断下降直至保持稳定时的能量值计算；温度函数中Arrhenius温度 的数值根据皱纹盘鲍在不同温度梯度下的单位干重耗氧率测定、计算；形状系数δm值通过统计测量的壳长、软组织湿重等生物学参数拟合回归得到。结果显示，皱纹盘鲍在饥饿后，呼吸耗氧率和软组织干重分别降低了26.3%和70.0%，呼吸耗氧率由2.69 mg/(ind.?h)逐渐降低并稳定在0.8 mg/(ind.?h)，软组织干重由(5.21±0.89) g降低至(3.84±0.22) g；根据公式计算得 和 的值分别为20.18 J/(cm3?d)和8120 J/cm；皱纹盘鲍饥饿前后有机物含量分别为80%和58%，经过换算， 和 的值分别为2726 J/cm3和32583 J/g。不同规格的皱纹盘鲍在水温为5℃~20℃范围内，温度与单位干重耗氧率呈正比；当水温超过20℃之后，温度与单位干重耗氧率呈反比。在转折点20℃之前，单位干重耗氧率的ln值与温度(热力学温度，K)的倒数呈线性关系，线性回归方程斜率的绝对值为Arrhenius温度 值( =7196 K)。生物学统计分析鲍壳长(L)与体积(V)呈三次函数关系：V=0.0639 L3.1621(R²=0.9852)，根据公式对软组织湿重的立方根与壳长进行线性回归，所得的斜率即为形状系数δm值(δm=0.43)。本研究对建立以DEB理论为指导的皱纹盘鲍个体生长模型提供了数据支撑。     

消费者食物浪费行为影响因素分析——基于计划行为理论的视角

巨大的食物浪费会造成严重的环境、社会和经济后果,阻碍社会的发展。消费者是食物浪费产生的主要原因,为了有效减少食物浪费,就必须了解消费者食物浪费行为的影响因素。基于计划行为理论,利用961个消费者的调查数据,从食物和环境相关行为两个角度,分析消费者食物浪费行为,探讨消费者食物浪费行为的影响因素。结果表明,消费者食物浪费量较大,占总食物量的16.52%。一般态度、金钱态度、环境态度、主观规范、个人规范和知觉行为控制均显著正向影响消费者减少食物浪费意愿,其中,环境态度对减少浪费意愿的影响最大,其次是食物浪费的一般态度和知觉行为控制,个人规范影响最小。而减少食物浪费意愿则显著负向影响消费者的食物浪费行为。因此,为有效减少食物浪费,提出加强沟通宣传、改变消费者对食物浪费的行为态度;规范相关条例制度、强化消费者减少食物浪费的规范;同时加强相关培训教育、提高消费者对食物浪费行为的知觉行为控制的建议。     

星球城市化：风景园林的新理论基础

星球城市化是建立在对城市/非城市二元论批判上提出的立足全球尺度的城市理论，其对非城市区域的关注与思考，以及操作性景观等概念的提出，均论证了这一城市研究理论与风景园林学科的密切联系。以星球城市化为基础发展起来的一系列新思潮近年来对风景园林的教育与实践产生了重要影响，星球生态学、星球建筑学以及星球基础设施等新概念的提出为学科带来了新的思考角度与操作手法，同时也促进了风景园林与多个学科之间的良性交流与补充。在星球视野下的风景园林学科将凭借其综合性与包容性，在全球人居环境营造中承担更重要的责任。     

基于可靠性视角的交通堵塞模型

本文从可靠性角度研究了交通堵塞模型.首先，通过合理的假设，建立了道路系统的可靠性模型.然后，利用补充变量方法及拉普拉斯变换技术，得到了道路系统的畅通率、稳态堵塞频度和首次堵塞前系统的平均畅通时间等道路系统评价指标.     

Association between porpoise presence and fish choruses: implications for feeding strategies and ecosystem-based conservation of the East Asian finless porpoise

The associations between feeding activities and environmental variables inform animal feeding tactics that maximize energetic gains by minimizing energy costs while maximizing feeding success. Relevant studies in aquatic animals, particularly marine mammals, are scarce due to difficulties in the observation of feeding behaviors in aquatic environments. This data scarcity concurrently hinders ecosystem-based fishery management in the context of small toothed-cetacean conservation. In the present study, a passive acoustic monitoring station was deployed in an East Asian finless porpoise habitat in Laizhou Bay to investigate potential relationships between East Asian finless porpoises and their prey. The data revealed that porpoises were acoustically present nearly every day during the survey period. Porpoise detection rates differed between spring and autumn in concert with activities of fish choruses. During spring, fish choruses were present throughout the afternoon, and this was the time when porpoise vocalizations were the most frequently detected. During autumn, when fish choruses were absent, porpoise detection rates decreased, and diurnal patterns were not detected. The close association between fish choruses and finless porpoise activities implies an “eavesdropping” feeding strategy to maximize energetic gains, similar to other toothed cetaceans that are known to engage similar feeding strategies. Underwater noise pollution, particularly those masking fish choruses, could interrupt finless porpoises’ feeding success. Fisheries competing soniferous fishes with finless porpoise could impact finless porpoise viability through ecosystem disruption, in addition to fishing gear entanglement.     

Prediction of the buckling stress of intermediate wooden columns using the secant modulus

We made several buckling tests of wooden columns with intermediate slenderness ratios () and examined the empirical formulas. On the basis of the examination, we formulated an equation for predicting the buckling stress () of an intermediate wooden column. Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis Carr.) and buna (Japanese beech, Fagus crenata BI.) were used for the studies. A compressive load was applied on the specimen supported with pin ends, and the buckling stress was predicted by the tangent modulus theory and two empirical equations: those of Tetmajer and Newlin-Gahagan. The predicted - relations were compared with the test results, and the applicability of these predictions were examined. Based on the comparisons, we formulated an equation that can predict the - relations of materials with various stress-strain characters in the plastic strain range.     

Application of real options theory to forestry investment analysis

This paper demonstrates the utility of the real options approach to forestry investment analysis. The main objectives are to discuss the real option theory and show how it can be adopted to model uncertainty and managerial flexibility in forest management and investment. Secondly, we show how to calculate the option values of selected options that may be available to managers of forest industry firms. The paper provides an empirical application, which compares a forestry investment using the static Faustmann model and the real options approach. Four management options are used for the real options approach: an option to delay reforestation, an option to expand the size of the wood processing plant, an option to abandon the processing plant if timber prices fall below a certain level or due to corporate take-over, and multiple options that evaluated all three options together. All options were evaluated using the binomial option-pricing model, where timber values are assumed to follow a multiplicative binomial process. The results show that the Faustmann analysis rejected the investments as unprofitable, while the option analysis showed that all three options were highly valuable if exercised. When real options are considered, the traditional Faustmann model for assessing the profitability of a forestry investment may fail to provide an adequate decision-making framework because it does not properly value management's ability to adjust to shocks in the economy, as well as risks and uncertainty.